MANUEL VOGT
Associate professor, University College London
Ideology, group demands, and violence
This research strand analyzes the politics of group demands, focusing on the role of political organizations and ideology in conflict escalation.
Vogt, Manuel. 2025. "Nationalism and Ethnic Mobilization: Towards an Integrated Perspective." Nationalities Papers 53(2):245-259. (Link)
This state-of-the-field article reviews scholarship on nationalism and ethnic mobilization, highlighting key sources of division in the literature and proposing an integrated perspective that serves to assimilate findings from separate strands of research in the field.
Gremler, Frederik, Manuel Vogt and Nils B. Weidmann. Forthcoming. "Intra-Ethnic Divisions and Disagreement over Self-Determination Demands in Ethnic Movements." Political Science Research and Methods. (Link)
Politically mobilized ethnic groups vary in their territorial demands: some press for increased autonomy or even outright secession, while others do not make such demands at all and prefer integration in the existing state. What explains this divergence in ethnic group demands with respect to the group’s territorial status? Few studies have explored the sources of fragmentation in (ethno-)political movements. Introducing an updated and expanded version of the EPR–Organizations (EPR-O) dataset, we test three pre-registered hypotheses. Our findings indicate that within-group diversity in economic resources increases disagreement over territorial demands.
Pischedda, Costantino and Manuel Vogt. 2025. "When Do Religious Organizations Resort to Violence? How Local Conditions Shape the Effects of Transnational Ideology." Ethnopolitics 24(1):1-26. (Link)
This article analyzes the changing role of religion in political violence, integrating various existing explanations at different levels of analysis (transnational, national, and organizational). We focus on how the Iranian Revolution has created a new transnational zeitgeist that has transformed the relationship between religion and political violence. Relying on the EPR-Organizations dataset, we show that ethno-political organizations with religious demands are more likely to resort to anti-government violence post-1979 than before this historical turning point, and we also analyze the national-level conditions and organization-level attributes under which this new transnational zeitgeist is most likely to foment violence.
Tabaar, Mohammad Ayatollahi, Reyko Huang, Kanchan Chandra, Evgeny Finkel, Richard A Nielsen, Mara Redlich Revkin, Manuel Vogt and Elisabeth Jean Wood. 2023. "How Religious Are “Religious” Conflicts?". International Studies Review 25(3): viad029. (Link)
Building on my research on the role of religion in political violence, my contribution to this “Forum” on religion and conflict discusses cognitive biases that have not only misled public debates on religion and violence, but also influenced prominent scholarly theories.
Vogt, Manuel, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch and Lars-Erik Cederman. 2021. "From Claims to Violence: Signaling, Outbidding, and Escalation in Ethnic Conflict." Journal of Conflict Resolution 65(7-8): 1278-1307. (Link)
Introducing the new EPR-Organizations (EPR-O) dataset, this paper advances and empirically substantiates a theory of ethno-political claim-making and civil conflict. We show that organizational fragmentation within ethnic movements leads to more radical political demands and that such radical demands increase the risk of political violence.